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PETALING JAYA: Competition is expected to be more stable in 2023 for the telecoms sector, with the Celcom Axiata Bhd-Digi.com Bhd merger potentially alleviating some pricing pressures.
With that, the big three mobile operators will continue to engage in subscriber acquisition/retention initiatives in a mature mobile market.
Their mobile service revenues are expected to grow in the low single-digit range next year, said CGS-CIMB Research.
The big three for now are Celcom, Digi and Maxis Bhd. But with the merger of Celcom and Digi, there will be only two giants and that can allude to less vibrant competition.,
According to CGS-CIMB Research, the big three mobile service revenue growth in 2022 was 1.4% and this was led by recovery in roaming and migrant/tourist prepaid SIM sales as Covid-19 abated, partly offset by a fall-off in the revenue boost from Prihatin-led initiatives.
The research house also does not expect major market repair, as U Mobile will likely want to keep growing its revenue scale to achieve sustainable net profits, or a decent return on equity.
It is more positive on revenue growth for the fixed business due to structural demand and relatively more benign competition.
It has an “overweight” call on the local telco sector, as it believes the potential earnings hit from the 5G wholesale fees has been factored into telcos’ share prices, which are down by an average of 13% year-to-date.
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